English / ქართული / русский /
Marina MuchiashviliQristine Kupatadze
STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON SUSTAINABILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT OF GEORGIA

Abstract 

In order to assess debt sustainability  of Georgia, the paper examines in detail the structure of the state budget's revenues, the state budget's payments..

The paper assesses the values of different fiscal sustainability indicators. In particular, the values of creditworthiness indicators- external debt/GDP, external debt/exports and external debt/budget revenues, as well as liquidity indicators- debt service/exports, debt service/budget revenues, are calculated and the extent to which these indicators satisfy the debt requirements for sustainability.

Using statistical methods, the impact of the pandemic on debt is studied in the paper. The papa assess the impact of real GDP growth rate  shock, interest rate shock, primary  balance shock and nominal exchange rate shock on the debt sustainability.

Key words: Fiscal sustainability, Government debt sustainability